Central Bank Policy Mistake?

TRI fears the Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve are making a policy mistake by continuing to raise interest rates in an economic environment which still hasn’t fully digested past interest rate increases. While TRI believes equity markets such as the S&P 500 will be challenged into the end of 2019 and early 2020, we have been expecting an important weekly and monthly cycle low in the October to December 2018 time frame.  The nature and length of the rally out of these cycle lows help identify the potential paths market might take in 2019. Macro Trends Equities are bouncing out of a potential daily, weekly and monthly cycle lows. Volatility is expected to be higher with a corrective rally in the process. Interest rates and yield curves are rising. Canadian and US bonds (10 year+) are becoming very attractive as they begin to bump into overhead resistance levels. USD has made new yearly highs and has confirmed the Feb 2018 as the most recent 4-year cycle low. TRI Cycle & Trend Signals Source: Fieldhouse Capital Management * TRI Cycle and Trend Signals are dynamic and may change on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, without notice. The indicators…

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