USDCAD Is Not Buying What the BoC is Selling
The currency market doesn’t share the Bank of Canada’s upbeat economic outlook published on May 29, 2019. The BoC believes the economic weakness in late 2018 and early 2019 was temporary, as such the BoC has held policy rates steady. Price action and the set up in the USDCAD shows a high probability of the Loonie being sold (higher USD, lower CAD) in the coming weeks and months.
On a medium-term basis, the USDCAD has been making a series of higher lows and higher highs since the summer of 2017. Year-to-date the USDCAD has corrected the late 2018 move higher. It is oscillating in upward sloping channel and bumping up to and marginally through resistance at 1.35 level. A solid breakout above 1.35 points to much higher levels for the USDCAD.
Cyclically, the USDCAD daily cycle appears to have bottomed on May 22, with a new daily bullish trend signal triggered on May 25. Evidence supports the week ending May 24 marking a weekly cycle low as well. That weekly cycle was right-translated and held above the previous cycle low.
The USDCAD is on a bullish daily, weekly and monthly signal with expectations of higher levels to come. TRI, like the USDCAD doesn’t buy the BoC’s positive economic outlook as headwinds are likely to increase as we enter summer and fall.
TRI Cycle & Trend Signals*
The TRI Cycle and Trend Signals are shown below. These signals are as of market close on May 29, 2019. Please see the TRI Overview document for further information.
Source: Fieldhouse Capital Management
* TRI Cycle and Trend Signals are dynamic and may change on a daily, weekly and monthly basis, without notice. The indicators are at a point in time and do not imply that the current trend will persist and should not be considered investment advice.
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